Ocean freight rates on key global container routes have fallen again. Despite the upcoming Golden Week in China, which usually drives demand, the situation this year is slightly different, and the expected rate increase may not happen.
Demand for container transport remains weak, and growing concerns about a potential strike on the east coast of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico are further driving prices down. The anticipated rate increase ahead of China’s Golden Week will likely not materialize.
October 1 marks the start of National Day in China, a seven-day holiday known as Golden Week. It is the longest public holiday after Chinese New Year. During this period, factories across the country close, and transport volumes drop significantly. Typically, two weeks before the holiday, consumption surges, increasing freight demand. Large volumes of goods accumulate in ports, leading to substantial price hikes for cargo transport.
However, this year, the situation is different. The industry is grappling with concerns over a potential longshoremen’s strike in the United States. Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which represents around 45,000 workers, and port operators over wages and port automation have stalled, heightening the risk of strikes and reducing demand.
We might see a global shortage of shipping capacity, extensive delays, blank sailings, vessels re-directed. The net result of all of this can be summed up in the phrase “a likely squeeze leading to a shortage”.
We live in a globally connected world. We are physically connected by the ocean and by the cargo ships. While events may be far distant, they will have a cascading whiplash effect on the world.
Reference:
Fears of strike in US and weak demand hit ocean freight rates | trans.info
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